In recent years, the furniture dealers I've encountered come from various regions, each with different product categories and financial strengths. Yet, they all seem to share a common sentiment: "Running a business is tough," and the underlying message is that "every dealer is taking a risk."
Furniture manufacturers, on the other hand, are complaining about rising production costs, uncertain shipment volumes, and the possibility that their final profits might not even match those of the dealers. Meanwhile, retailers also face challenges and often blame dealers for being short-sighted.
It seems that the surface of the furniture industry is full of contradictions, giving people the feeling of "laughing on stage, crying behind it." Beyond the finger-pointing, the industry is indeed struggling, and internal adjustments are happening amidst these conflicts. Whether we like it or not, major changes are coming.
As someone who has been following the furniture industry for many years, today I’d like to share my thoughts on what the future of the furniture industry might look like and how current players might fit into this evolving landscape.
**Furniture Manufacturers as Brand Suppliers**
It's unlikely that manufacturers will completely stop producing in the future. However, the industry will definitely see a significant reduction in the number of furniture companies. The law of survival of the fittest applies here—only a few will remain after a series of mergers and acquisitions. These surviving companies will have clear operational models.
Manufacturers can be broadly divided into two groups:
The first group consists of branded companies. These enterprises have their own brands, and their products are sold under their own names in the market. While there may appear to be many such brands, only a few will survive in the long run. These successful brands will have built a strong reputation through market integration. Their channel strategies may include direct stores, franchises, or wholesale partnerships, and their production methods could vary—from owning factories at home or abroad to outsourcing to foundries.
The second group includes unbranded manufacturers, essentially functioning as foundries. Although they lack brand value, they still hold a place in the global economy. As costs rise, some domestic foundries may move to Southeast Asia or even Africa, while others stay in remote areas, though in much smaller numbers.
**Furniture Retailers Can Also Build Their Own Brands**
For years, many furniture dealers have admired foreign retail models, believing that true channel masters are the ones who control the market. While China’s furniture industry is expected to evolve toward more advanced models, only a few dealers will succeed in this transformation.
Those who manage to do so will likely fall into two categories:
First, self-sufficient retailers. Even though the number of brands will decrease, furniture retailers will still play a key role. These retailers may become exclusive partners for certain brands, open franchise stores, or sell authorized products in their own shops.
Second, private-label retailers. Many dealers dream of building their own brands. After accumulating capital, some may choose to produce their own products through foundries and sell them through their own channels—a model similar to that seen in Europe and the U.S.
**Furniture Distributors Will Transform into Brand Retailers**
As an essential part of the current furniture distribution chain, furniture distributors will need to undergo a complete transformation in the future. With fewer brands, traditional store models will struggle to survive.
Even if the number of brands decreases, it doesn’t mean that stores will remain busy. Once brands gain recognition, they’ll often choose more efficient distribution models, reducing their reliance on traditional furniture stores. Most of these stores may disappear, but transforming into brand retailers could be a viable path forward.
Chain stores, in particular, have an advantage due to their accumulated brand presence. By purchasing products and selling them under their own brand, they can smoothly transition into brand retailers.
**Future Furniture Retailers Will Be the Winners**
In the future, manufacturers will either operate their own brands or focus on branding and sales, handing production to foundries and becoming “brand suppliers.†Remaining dealers will evolve into multi-dimensional retailers, while some will shift to brand sales and become furniture retailers.
Ultimately, furniture retailers are likely to be the big winners in the industry’s future.
While these predictions come with risks, my goal is to spark discussion among industry professionals and encourage collective thinking.
For more insights into China’s furniture industry, visit the official website of Xianghe Furniture City.
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