At the last minute, the central bank admitted that it had injected liquidity into the market, which made the bank breathe a sigh of relief, but in the future, stricter liquidity regulation is irreversible, and banks need to prepare for the return of the real economy.
On June 26, the bank's overnight lending annualized interest rate was 5.553%, compared with a week ago, the interbank interest rate has dropped by nearly 800 and the base point.
Since June 21, the tension in the interbank market has seen a significant slowdown. On June 25, the central bank announced that in order to keep the money market running smoothly, the central bank has recently provided liquidity support to some financial institutions that meet macro-prudential requirements. Some banks with sufficient liquidity have also begun to play a role as stabilizers. With the funds out, the money market interest rate has stabilized. With the elimination of time and emotional factors, interest rate fluctuations and liquidity tensions are expected to gradually ease.
It can be said that the actions of the central bank are immediate, and when the liquidity of the interbank market was the most intense, including the chief economist of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Greater China, Lu Ting, and the chief economist of HSBC Greater China, Qu Hongbin. Investment bankers have predicted Tencent Finance that the central bank has enough ability to control the situation.
In response to a question from Tencent Finance, Liao Qiang, a senior director of Standard & Poor's, said that after July, the liquidity of the interbank market will be further alleviated, but it is believed that banks with radical liquidity management have learned the lesson and will deleverage the bank in the future. Will be the norm.
For a long time, platform companies that are supported by off-balance sheet credit and overcapacity industries will have their funding sources limited. From June 25th to June 25th, according to the incomplete statistics of Tencent Finance, the real estate and steel trade industries have clearly felt the pressure in the near future.
Market participants pointed out that Tencent Finance pointed out that the future funds will flow to the strategic emerging industries supported by the state, and the electronic information and environmental protection industries will gain a more relaxed growth environment.
Bank detox
In reviewing the liquidity problem in the interbank market, the central bank said on its official website that interest rates in the money market have risen and fluctuated due to faster loan growth, concentrated corporate income tax payments, and cash demand for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The impact of various factors such as changes in the foreign exchange market and the payment of statutory reserves.
The central bank pointed out that the total amount of money and credit and social financing increased rapidly in the first five months. At the end of May, the financial institution's reserve ratio was 1.7%. As of June 21, all financial institutions had a reserve of about 1.5 trillion yuan. Under normal circumstances, all financial institutions' reserve funds will remain at around 670 million yuan to meet normal payment and liquidation requirements. If they remain at around 1 trillion yuan, they will be sufficient. Therefore, the current total liquidity is There is no shortage.
A person familiar with the matter told Tencent Finance that in fact, the stock funds in the market are not as tight as the market interest rates. In the toughest market on June 20th, a trader of a small and medium-sized bank could not borrow money at an annualized interest rate of 15%, and the bank's president obtained the loan at a rate of 8% through several calls. This shows that there is no shortage of money in the market.
As early as June 18, a banker close to the central bank told Tencent Finance that the central bank hopes to use the structural liquidity tension in the market to warn the rapid expansion of off-balance-sheet business banks.
This statement has been recognized by many agencies. Standard & Poor's pointed out that the previous practice of commercial banks relied too much on short-term funds to suspend the market to allocate assets, and its risks have been greatly highlighted in recent years. According to the S&P statistics, the daily trading volume of the interbank is 3 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2010, the inter-bank business has increased by 3.5 times in two and a half years.
And this radical liquidity management is putting banks at an unprecedented risk. Standard & Poor's estimates that by the end of 2013, the industry's bad debts may not be higher than 3%, while in 2012 this figure is about 1.5%.
The statement of the central bank on June 25 also expressed similar meaning. The central bank said that commercial banks should carefully control the liquidity risk that may be caused by the rapid expansion of assets such as credit, and strengthen the prevention of mismatch risk in the inter-bank business.
Wang Wenying, Fidelity International Investment China Focus Fund Manager, said that China’s central government has the ability to effectively reduce interbank lending rates. The reason why it has not done so now is that the People’s Bank of China wants to reaffirm its absolute leadership position to major banks. Many banks have already gained a lot of benefits from illegal wealth management products, and now the People's Bank of China is squeezing the profit bubble by letting the lending rate continue to rise, especially for smaller banks. At the same time, the People's Bank of China is also looking to allow major banks to further improve their management of their assets and liabilities, rather than gaining additional income by improving liquidity.
The efforts of the central bank are changing within the banking industry. On June 25, Standard & Poor's pointed out that there are already signs that the gap between the speed of bank off-balance sheet credit expansion and the speed of on-balance sheet credit expansion is reversing.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, also pointed out that recent events are likely to significantly affect the behavior of financial institutions, and the growth of general credit, especially the expansion of shadow banking, will slow down.
At present, interest rates in the banking market are beginning to stabilize. Liao Qiang believes that where the final interest rate is stable, it is difficult to determine, but it is likely to be higher than the average before May.
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